Alright everyone, we're 8 days out from the Kentucky Derby. Time to talk bets.
I use a ton of metrics to try and widdle the field down to 1) horses that I think can win 2) horses I think can run Top 4 (in the money), and 3) horses I can toss from all wagers. It's a lot of data & numbers, so dont bore yourselves with it, if it's TLDR.
Here's some of the metrics that I use:
Using the Conduit Mare in the last 24 KY Derbys only 1 Horse won the derby with a higher speed number then stamina number, and only 2 horses with that same number ratio have come in 2nd place. Two of those three were in 2020, when the Derby was run in September because of Covid, which messed things up with these horses 3 yr old forms & cycles.
Taking all of that into account, that leaves 10 horses with Higher Stamina than Speed: Sandman, Journalism, Rodriguez, Chunk of Gold, Publisher, American Promise, Flying Mohawk, Luxor Cafe, Admire Daytona and Grande. So your winner & second place finisher should come from that group.
That's 1 metric.
I also look at the final 3/8 time and final 1/8 time in the last big prep race. Historically, the winner of the Derby runs the final 3/8 in their final prep race in under 37.8 seconds & the final 1/8 in under 13 seconds. Those horses are: Journalism, Rodriguez, Tappan Street, Sovereignty, American Promise, Flying Mohawk, Grande, and Luxor Cafe. Final Gambit also did it, but it was only synthetic surface, which skews the #'s, so I toss that one.
Then I look at Jon Whites strike system, which has had a historically high hit rate for winners & horses running in the money. The lower the strikes, the better, but 3 strikes or less is key. Almost the entire field has less than 3 but Journalism, Sandman, and Tappan Street stand out with zero.
Then I look at their bloodlines. Horses who have Raise-A-Native (RAN) in their sire line, and Buckpasser on the X side of their dam side. This is a potent combo for determining Derby winners, as horses with this win at a 6x higher clip.
Horses with RAN: Burnham Square, Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Grande
Horses with Buckpasser-X: Rodriguez, Tiztastic, Final Gambit, Flying Mohawk, Admire Daytona
Horses with both: Luxor Cafe & Grande
There's other metrics I use, but these are the most important one's (for me anyway).
I use a ton of metrics to try and widdle the field down to 1) horses that I think can win 2) horses I think can run Top 4 (in the money), and 3) horses I can toss from all wagers. It's a lot of data & numbers, so dont bore yourselves with it, if it's TLDR.
Here's some of the metrics that I use:
Using the Conduit Mare in the last 24 KY Derbys only 1 Horse won the derby with a higher speed number then stamina number, and only 2 horses with that same number ratio have come in 2nd place. Two of those three were in 2020, when the Derby was run in September because of Covid, which messed things up with these horses 3 yr old forms & cycles.
Taking all of that into account, that leaves 10 horses with Higher Stamina than Speed: Sandman, Journalism, Rodriguez, Chunk of Gold, Publisher, American Promise, Flying Mohawk, Luxor Cafe, Admire Daytona and Grande. So your winner & second place finisher should come from that group.
That's 1 metric.
I also look at the final 3/8 time and final 1/8 time in the last big prep race. Historically, the winner of the Derby runs the final 3/8 in their final prep race in under 37.8 seconds & the final 1/8 in under 13 seconds. Those horses are: Journalism, Rodriguez, Tappan Street, Sovereignty, American Promise, Flying Mohawk, Grande, and Luxor Cafe. Final Gambit also did it, but it was only synthetic surface, which skews the #'s, so I toss that one.
Then I look at Jon Whites strike system, which has had a historically high hit rate for winners & horses running in the money. The lower the strikes, the better, but 3 strikes or less is key. Almost the entire field has less than 3 but Journalism, Sandman, and Tappan Street stand out with zero.
Then I look at their bloodlines. Horses who have Raise-A-Native (RAN) in their sire line, and Buckpasser on the X side of their dam side. This is a potent combo for determining Derby winners, as horses with this win at a 6x higher clip.
Horses with RAN: Burnham Square, Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Grande
Horses with Buckpasser-X: Rodriguez, Tiztastic, Final Gambit, Flying Mohawk, Admire Daytona
Horses with both: Luxor Cafe & Grande
There's other metrics I use, but these are the most important one's (for me anyway).
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