Well...finally watched the 1st Ward/Kov fight. Hard to judge by blurry Youtube TV footage, but it looked like Kov should have gotten the dec.
Went small bet on Kovalev, mainly because he has more potential to make meaningful improvements between fights -- Ward's wrestling's probably not going to improve much, but Kov's probably will -- & probably the controversy from the 1st bout has the promoters & ACs looking at a trilogy in a favorable light; I suspect the referree put in is going to benefit Kov when announced (less tolerant of clinching, quicker to step & more consistent about doing it).
Referree chosen has the potential to determine the outcome here more than the fighters themselves, looks like to me.
If Kov's team actually works rounds of clinching, focusing on it, he shouldn't tire and become porous at the same rate as in the 1st fight. Ward's caution's not going to change. He's going to have a hard time getting off & more so if a Kov favorable ref is chosen, & if Kov tires from clinching less quickly.