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There has been a lot of confusion around Jon Jones’ most recent positive test for Turinabol, with various outlets selectively reporting comments from the UFC’s Jeff Novitzky, to the extent that the man himself had to issue a correction.
USADA’s process for determining suspension length can seem opaque and mysterious. A fighter tests positive, nothing is heard for months, and then a short statement is released disclosing the suspension length. The suspensions themselves carry varying lengths which can seem random, with different fighters receiving different suspensions for using the same substance.
Part of the problem is that outsiders have very limited access to info about test failures; results aren’t released, USADA very rarely gives detailed reasoning on their decision making process, and evidence of potentially mitigating factors is usually kept private.
Another issue is that the rules and guidelines themselves can seem byzantine and confusing, with suspension lengths depending on several different clauses of the UFC’s Anti-Doping Policy (ADP), and those clauses sometimes even referencing other clauses.
Jon Jones’ situation seems especially complex, since it is potentially his second violation of the UFC’s ADP, which brings even more factors into the equation. In this piece, I’m going to highlight the actual relevant factors in determining his suspension length and make predictions on the suspension Jones is facing based on the information we have available.
Why Jon Jones probably isn’t getting a 4-year suspension
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