(Algorithmic) HEAVYWEIGHT RANKINGS

[Haulport]

Hey Ya'll,

I have an algo I wrote to output MMA Rankings and have occasionally shared the results for feedback at the other place. Stopped doing that because the users suck and provide no salient feedback to learn from, so I figured I'd try it here in my new MMA home. Since I don't have a scrapper script or api to the Sherdog or Tapology databases, I end up doing this in a somewhat manual fashion, so if there are some blatant errors I apologize in advance.

Let me know what you think and especially if you think something is wildly off for some reason:

1. Werdum
2. Rothwell
3. Cain
4. Alistair
5. Junior
6. Stipe
7. Arlovski
8. Hapa
9. Barnett
10. Schaub
11. Frank Mir
12. Hunto
13. Nelson
14. Mitrione
15. Bigfoot

I won't give up the secret sauce but I'll let you know some generalities of how I got where I got.

Thanks : )

 

[sparkuri]

Well, it doesn't not make reverse unsense

 

[Qat]

Where is Jaideep Singh?

Flawed.

 

[sparkuri]

Where is Jaideep Singh?

Flawed.

This is a UFC HW ranking.
Otherwise you'd see Minakov and others.

 

[Joemacka]

Cant argue with that its pretty good i would personally swap Rothwell and Velasquez tho.

 

[Haulport]

This is a UFC HW ranking.
Otherwise you'd see Minakov and others.

Yeah, I just did UFC fighters this time around because of the manual issues and workload : (

 

[Qat]

But really I feel Ben is a bit too high, and Stipe far too low.
Yeah Ben beat Overeem and then won versus Mitrione, and before that Vera, after getting out of a rocky 3-4, including a loss to Cain. I don't see him being put in front of Cain. Unless the inactivity factor is playing a big role in your algorithm.
Stipe looks better for me on record as well. Stipe over Rothwell.

And while JDS beat Stipe, he is 2-3 in his last 5 and just got finished. Stipe is 4-1 and just finished another contender. Stipe has to be put in front of him as well imho.

Nelson out, Rosholt in, Hunt a bit higher. Schaub out.

 

[Haulport]

Cant argue with that its pretty good i would personally swap Rothwell and Velasquez tho.

Any particular reasoning? Thanks!

 

[Joemacka]

Any particular reasoning? Thanks!

I know it was awhile ago but he beat Ben and Cain has only lost to Werdum and JDS who he then beat twice. But i can see why you might put Ben ahead of him with the fact that Cain has been so inactive and Ben is on a great win streak.

 

[member 1013]

List is OK, but you forgot that Conor is #1 in all weight classes.

 

[Wild]

1. Werdum
2. Cain
3. Stipe
4. Rothwell
5. Alistair
6. Junior
7. Arlovski
8. Hunto
9. Barnett
10. Hapa
    
11. Frank Mir
12. Mitrione
13. Nelson
14. Bigfoot

This would be how I would rank them. Removed Schaub.

 

[Haulport]

But really I feel Ben is a bit too high, and Stipe far too low.
Yeah Ben beat Overeem and then won versus Mitrione, and before that Vera, after getting out of a rocky 3-4, including a loss to Cain. I don't see him being put in front of Cain. Unless the inactivity factor is playing a big role in your algorithm.
Stipe looks better for me on record as well. Stipe over Rothwell.

And while JDS beat Stipe, he is 2-3 in his last 5 and just got finished. Stipe is 4-1 and just finished another contender. Stipe has to be put in front of him as well imho.

Nelson out, Rosholt in, Hunt a bit higher. Schaub out.

I do use a rolling time frame for complete exclusion and a shorter one for certain subset conditions, so fights that get stale don't count. It's years though. I also have what I call "Qualified Fights" and certain opponents may fall outside of those standards and not matter if you defeat them (but do if you lose).

 

[Disciplined Galt]

No, ranking is easy.

Fedor #1

 

[teamquestnorth]

Do you have a MW ranking?

 

[Disciplined Galt]

Vitor Belfort.

 

[Zeph]

I prefer Scordcard's. They share their formula too.

 

[Haulport]

I prefer Scordcard's. They share their formula too.

Thanks! I never heard of them. Have to look at it more but their ranking seems pretty in line with what everyone does. It is missing the major components (imo) of who u have lost to and how u win. How do u put Stipe ahead of a guy (Junior) who beat him just a year ago? Also, the presence of Alexey Oleinik in the top 10 makes me feel their algo isn't so great. He has only 2 UFC fights and his biggest win is Rosholt who beat Struve via decision and Struve has not been doing well for a while. Not exactly top ten accomplishments.

 

[Haulport]

Do you have a MW ranking?

Haven't done that in a long while. If people are interested and I have some time I'll do it.

 

[Qat]

Thanks, I never heard of them. Have to look at it more but their ranking seems pretty in line with what everyone does. It is missing the major components (imo) of who u have lost to and how u win. How do u put Stipe ahead of a guy (Junior) who beat him just a year ago? Also, the presence of Alexey Oleinik in the top 10 makes me feel their algo isn't so great. He has only 2 UFC fights and his biggest win is Rosholt who beat Struve via decision and Struve has not been doing well for a while. Not exactly top ten accomplishments.

Oleinik is on a 11-fight win streak, beat Cro Cop directly before coming to the UFC and going 2-0 there. 11! Maybe its only enough for borderline top10, but top15, at least.
Rosholt is on 3 fight win-streak, which are hard to come by in the UFC. You dont even have Rosholt in your top15, but Nelson who is on 3 fight losing-streak and 1-5 in his last 6. I can't agree with that.
You even have Bigfoot in front of him who only won 3 fights in his last 10, and his only win in the last two years is Soa Palelei, going 1-1-4, and getting finished every time.

And why putting Stipe ahead of JDS right now? I already elaborated a little on that earlier, but especially when you do it mathematically and consider how people win or lose, you should. This isn't a tournament, this is a ranking.

 

[GSPTrainingInAPool]

Oleinik

Wow...just looked this up. He's a kiiiiller in Sambo and JJ. Gotta look up some fights of his, many thanks!!!!

 

[Haulport]

Oleinik is on a 11-fight win streak, beat Cro Cop directly before coming to the UFC and going 2-0 there. 11! Maybe its only enough for borderline top10, but top15, at least.
Rosholt is on 3 fight win-streak, which are hard to come by in the UFC. You dont even have Rosholt in your top15, but Nelson who is on 3 fight losing-streak and 1-5 in his last 6. I can't agree with that.
You even have Bigfoot in front of him who only won 3 fights in his last 10, and his only win in the last two years is Soa Palelei, going 1-1-4, and getting finished every time.

And why putting Stipe ahead of JDS right now? I already elaborated a little on that earlier, but especially when you do it mathematically and consider how people win or lose, you should. This isn't a tournament, this is a ranking.

While I would never say that an 11 fight win streak is something to shake a stick at, he was not, and still is not, taking on anyone near the top ten in the world at HW. I just don't see how you move up into the top ten or 15 when you haven't beaten anyone who was ranked there. Roy, on the other hand, is fighting the absolute top of the food chain during that time and was finished only once and KO'd Nog. I am just not a fan of the idea of streaks determining a place in the ranking (this applies to Stipe too). You need to beat the people at the top to get to the top and jumping ahead of guys who beat you (Junior) just because you beat someone else (AA and Hunt) doesn't sway me much unless that fight is pretty stale.

Rosholt is in the same category of not beating anyone of note yet besides Struve by decision. He and Oleinik are right outside the Top 15 and would move up if they fought and beat stiffer competition.

 

[Qat]

While I would never say that an 11 fight win streak is something to shake a stick at, he was not, and still is not, taking on anyone near the top ten in the world at HW. I just don't see how you move up into the top ten or 15 when you haven't beaten anyone who was ranked there. Roy, on the other hand, is fighting the absolute top of the food chain during that time and was finished only once and KO'd Nog. I am just not a fan of the idea of streaks determining a place in the ranking (this applies to Stipe too). You need to beat the people at the top to get to the top and jumping ahead of guys who beat you (Junior) just because you beat someone else (AA and Hunt) doesn't sway me much unless that fight is pretty stale.

Rosholt is in the same category of not beating anyone of note yet besides Struve by decision. He and Oleinik are right outside the Top 15 and would move up if they fought and beat stiffer competition.

Suffice to say all of these 11 wins were by finish, and he is the only guy besides Nog who could submit Cro Cop.
I'm not saying he is a world beater, and he is quite old as well, but I'd like for him to get the recognition he deserves and then see him fight a Barnett or a Mir at some point.
I also think you can give him a top10-fight at the moment, HW is very stale, especially when you don't shake things up. Sure Roy fought good competition, but if you never throw him out, how can new guys move in? And maybe he is washed up and just out of it? Rank him further down and give him lesser competition if he can't cut it up there, as simple as that.

And if you are not a fan of streaks deciding a place, how the hell does Rothwell end up on #2? His record is not as good as Stipe's, or Cain's. Ben's best win is Overreem, who at the time was 1-2 with 2 ko-losses in the last 3 and clearly not in the top5. How does he land on #2? He has no top5 win! That is not in accord with your own statements.. no top5 win! I'd still put in the top5, and so should you. But #2 really doesn't make any sense with what you are saying here.

jumping ahead of guys who beat you (Junior) just because you beat someone else (AA and Hunt) doesn't sway me much unless that fight is pretty stale.

Just because? Did you see Junior's last fight? Does that have no impact for you?
Stipe was already high-ranked before, then lost the decision and went on to finish a borderline contender in Hunt, and a clear cut contender on a 6 fight win-streak in AA.
Junior won the decision and went on to get finished.

 

[Haulport]

Suffice to say all of these 11 wins were by finish, and he is the only guy besides Nog who could submit Cro Cop.
I'm not saying he is a world beater, and he is quite old as well, but I'd like for him to get the recognition he deserves and then see him fight a Barnett or a Mir at some point.
I also think you can give him a top10-fight at the moment, HW is very stale, especially when you don't shake things up. Sure Roy fought good competition, but if you never throw him out, how can new guys move in? And maybe he is washed up and just out of it? Rank him further down and give him lesser competition if he can't cut it up there, as simple as that.

And if you are not a fan of streaks deciding a place, how the hell does Rothwell end up on #2? His record is not as good as Stipe's, or Cain's. Ben's best win is Overreem, who at the time was 1-2 with 2 ko-losses in the last 3 and clearly not in the top5. How does he land on #2? He has no top5 win! That is not in accord with your own statements.. no top5 win! I'd still put in the top5, and so should you. But #2 really doesn't make any sense with what you are saying here.

Just because? Did you see Junior's last fight? Does that have no impact for you?
Stipe was already high-ranked before, then lost the decision and went on to finish a borderline contender in Hunt, and a clear cut contender on a 6 fight win-streak in AA.
Junior won the decision and went on to get finished.

I think a lot of what motivates your sense of rankings, and I say this with no disrespect, is that you work under the philosophy that a certain rank limits someone's opportunities, particularly title shots. To me those are separate decisions. #2 does not have to face the champ automatically. Rankings, imo, should serve as a guideline for tourneys, championship fights and general match-ups and reflect the achievements of fighters at any given point. This philosophy frees me to simply examine what has been happening for each fighter within a time range (I keep a cutoff point that the algo doesn't go back any further).

As for Ben, his win over Alistair and the chain of wins of Alistair and his opponents had created Ben's opportunity to rise in the ranks. He goes ahead of Cain because Ben has a greater point total for the time period and in reality, I broke my own rule because Cain has been SO inactive that technically he doesn't even qualify to be ranked. I put him in and shared this with everyone because I am at a bit of a loss regarding how to handle this kind of inactivity. You have the former champ barely fighting to the point of not deserving to be ranked but if you lower the amount of qualified fights a guy needs to be ranked than you may very well get some very stupid fighters/can-crushers introduced into your rankings (which is a COMMON and a HORRIBLE mess that the vast majority of ranking sites out there have). I am going to go back and examine these particular guys (Ben, Cain and Stipe) and see if the reasons aren't compelling enough. This is extremely helpful feedback.

 

[Haulport]

Adjustments after last night's fights:

1 Werdum
2 Rothwell
3 Cain
4 Alistair
5 Junior
6 Stipe
7 Arlovski
8 Hapa
9 Hunto
10 Frank Mir
11 Barnett
12 Nelson
13 Mitrione
14 Bigfoot

Notes:

• I pulled Schaub since everyone feels he is really retired.
• Big Ben is undefeated in the past 3 years finishing all four opponents: Overeem (#4), Barnett (#9 at time of defeat), Mitrione & Vera.
• Mir moves ahead of Barnett even though he lost to him because he has a higher point total and that defeat has past the threshold for keeping Frank behind him. Frank is 2-2 with two finishes since then and Josh is 1-2 with one decision win during that time.

FYI: These are not rationalizations for the rankings, they are just explanations/transparency so people can have more informed commentary.

 

[Wild]

Your latest rankings appear pretty spot on to me...although I would put Stipe at #3 and move everyone else down a slot.