The 2015 Kentucky Derby

[Wild]

I'm was over your offer! The only reason I clicked on this thread (being that I was just getting ready to turn the computer off for the night) is because I saw your name as the last poster. It's a no brainer man! However, once I clicked on the thread and saw how much information has been laid out there for us by IWEA, with all of the information typed out, the pretty charts, loads of videos and some stunning images, I kind of figured this guy knows his shit too!

Now I want to hear what his going rate is and how it compares to your $1400 fee. Mind you, even with all of the pretty charts and images its going to be tough to win my faith over more than someone with the name Priziesthorse! He must be having a wet dream over this thread right now..........this thread is pretty much about him.

FYI - I love this picture! My eyes are bad and this picture is definitely fucking with them.

That's last years Derby winner, California Chrome w/ Victor Espinoza aboard. I don't know about knowing my shit, but I love to fire at the ponies during the meets at Churchill & Keeneland. And I will be firing at the Derby!

 

[sgotwalks]

For the record, I am not an avid watcher of the races, but I have spent several nights at the track as a child and in my teens and early 20's, both trots and thoroughbreds. I know how to read a program, although it's been a long time. I've had some amazingly fucked up nights at racetracks, they will always have a warm spot in my heart.........I can fucking smell it right now just thinking about it, weird! Anyhow, I'll come back to this thread for sure, and I'll get into the Kentucky Derby more this year than in the past.

PS - The GOAT athlete ever at his/her sport - Secretariat! More so than Gretzky, Jordan, Robinson, Brady etc....

 

[Priziesthorse]

I'm was over your offer! The only reason I clicked on this thread (being that I was just getting ready to turn the computer off for the night) is because I saw your name as the last poster. It's a no brainer man! However, once I clicked on the thread and saw how much information has been laid out there for us by IWEA, with all of the information typed out, the pretty charts, loads of videos and some stunning images, I kind of figured this guy knows his shit too!

Now I want to hear what his going rate is and how it compares to your $1400 fee. Mind you, even with all of the pretty charts and images its going to be tough to win my faith over more than someone with the name Priziesthorse! He must be having a wet dream over this thread right now..........this thread is pretty much about him.

FYI - I love this picture! My eyes are bad and this picture is definitely fucking with them.

Instead of telling you, you can just watch my life story.

 

[sgotwalks]

^ That gave me a good laugh!

 

[Wild]

So here's what I've been focusing on so far. Looking for a couple of horses that can run near the lead (rate/stalk), and a couple of closers.

Horses that like to run on or near the lead: Dortmund and American Pharoa obviously make sense. The question then becomes, will they go to the lead? Can they win this race on the lead? Can they rate off of the pace? In a 20 horse field, these are tough question to answer...especially before post positions have been drawn. Example, if either horse draws the rail, I'm throwing them out of the top position. Churchills rail comes in on the track, about 200 yards from the post, and the #1 hole has to do one of two things...gun it to the lead, and expend a ton of energy doing so...or get pinched down on the rail by 19 horses and just be completely fucked. If they draw 19-20, that isn't the best scenario either...although Big Brown won from Post 20 in 2008, and I'll Have Another won from Post 19 in 2012. It's still not ideal. If either draws 2-18, I'm putting them on top of my tickets.

Now I need to figure out the deep closers. International Star fits the bill. He likes to close from off the pace, and has been very successful doing so. His Sire is Fusaichi Pegasus, who won the Derby in 2000, so he's got the pedigree. War Story likes to close a bit, but hasn't ran in a Grade 1 race yet...let alone, win one. Firing Line ran from off the pace in his first two starts, but stalked right off the lead or ran on the lead in his last three...so he's a confusing one.

Then there's Carpe Diem and Frosted. Carpe Diem ran 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, back in November at Santa Anita...and closed from 7 lengths off the lead to get 2nd (but by 6 1/2 lengths). The rest of his races, he's rated right off the lead. Frosted closed off the pace in his first two starts, but has rated off the lead in his other 5 races.

So those are the horses that I'm looking at right now. Yes, the list is long, but that's usually how analyzing this race works. You cut 20 down to 10, 10 down to 5, 5 down to 3, 3 down to 1. Then play some combinations of those horses in exotics.

 

[Wild]

For the record, I am not an avid watcher of the races, but I have spent several nights at the track as a child and in my teens and early 20's, both trots and thoroughbreds. I know how to read a program, although it's been a long time. I've had some amazingly fucked up nights at racetracks, they will always have a warm spot in my heart.........I can fucking smell it right now just thinking about it, weird! Anyhow, I'll come back to this thread for sure, and I'll get into the Kentucky Derby more this year than in the past.

PS - The GOAT athlete ever at his/her sport - Secretariat! More so than Gretzky, Jordan, Robinson, Brady etc....

I have an owners pass at Churchill (bought into a syndicate years ago). It allows us access to the backside of Churchill where the barns and stables are. There are also betting windows back there, and restrooms for the workers. So it's great. Some weekends, I'll pack the truck up with the grill, cooler, chairs, canopy...and the wife and I will take the kids out there for the day. There's some grassy areas right up near the track (you can see where we set up shop in the pic below - right there by that tree). We grill out, drink a bit, bet some races...the kids feed peppermints to the horses in the barns, or climb that tree. It's a blast. Love the smell as well, lol.

 

[sgotwalks]

Awesome stuff in this thread! I can't believe the race is on the same day as the fight.............what a huge day for the sports networks come the 11 pm sports hour. Sure would be a shitty day to pitch a perfect game in baseball or something.

 

[Wild]

My wife and kids will be in Orlando for a cheer competition over Derby weekend (I avoid going because it's chaos...5000 cheerleaders and their cheer moms - no thanks). Anyway, I usually go to the backside for Derby, but you have to get out there at 8am to find a parking spot and place inside to camp out all day...and the last race isn't until 6:30pm. That's a LONG day. So I'm parking my ass at home this year, and wagering thru twinspires.com. Going to throw a pork tenderloin on the Weber, ice down 18 beers, and relax & bet.

 

[Priziesthorse]

Post positions have been drawn:

1 Ocho Ocho Ocho
2 Carpe Diem
3 Materiality
4 Tecendur
5 Danzig Moon
6 Mubtaahij
7 El Kabeir
8 Dortmund
9 Bolo
10 Firing Line
11 Stanford
12 International Star
13 Itsaknockout
14 Keen Ice
15 Frosted
16 War Story
17 Mr. Z
18 American Pharoah
19 Upstart
20 Far Right

My picks are now officially made. PM me for details on how to purchase them.

 

[El Pescadero]

release the locks please

 

[Wild]

release the locks please

I'll have my picks in by 4pm ET. I am really high on Firing Line, and a couple of live shots at long odds. Just trying to figure out how to structure the tickets. Stay tuned...

 

[sgotwalks]

 

[Wild]

Cashed two tickets thru the first 6 races this morning, so I'm about even on the day. Just missed the exact in Race 6. Had 6/11...came in 11/6. FUCK, spend the extra money & box them!!!!

 

[Zeph]

Can't believe I am going no bites on my offer.

The only person I trust to give me betting tips is Fury's Fight Picks.

 

[lookoutawhale]

I have an owners pass at Churchill (bought into a syndicate years ago). It allows us access to the backside of Churchill where the barns and stables are. There are also betting windows back there, and restrooms for the workers. So it's great. Some weekends, I'll pack the truck up with the grill, cooler, chairs, canopy...and the wife and I will take the kids out there for the day. There's some grassy areas right up near the track (you can see where we set up shop in the pic below - right there by that tree). We grill out, drink a bit, bet some races...the kids feed peppermints to the horses in the barns, or climb that tree. It's a blast. Love the smell as well, lol.

i dont know much about horse racing but that seems like a nice family outing.

 

[Wild]

i dont know much about horse racing but that seems like a nice family outing.

It's a lot of fun. Wish the wife & kids were home today to grill out and watch this with me today. I expect this Derby to be bonkers because the field is so deep.

 

[Wild]

Delicious...

 

[Wild]

Alright - Here's my picks.

$10 Win & Place: Firing Line
$20 Win: American Pharoah


$2 exacta wheel ($30):

American Pharoah
Dortmund
Firing Line

w/

American Pharoah
Dortmund
Firing Line
Danzig Moon
Upstart
Frosted

50 cent trifecta wheel ($60 ticket):

American Pharoa
Dortmund
Firing Line

w/

American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Firing Line
Danzig Moon
Upstart

w/

American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Firing Line
Danzig Moon
Materialality
Upstart
Carpe Diem
Mubtaahij
Bolo

$130 TOTAL - wish me luck

 

[Wild]

Bets are

ACCEPTED:65b6c-430d5

CD
#11
$0.50 Trifecta 8, 10, 18, WT, 5, 8, 10, 15, 18, 19, WT, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 15, 18, 19 none $60.00
-
-
ACCEPTED:42cd1-89d14

CD
#11
$2 Exacta 8, 10, 18, WT, 5, 8, 10, 15, 18, 19 none $30.00
-
-
ACCEPTED:3e55f-e95fc

CD
#11
$20 Win 18 none $20.00
-
-
ACCEPTED:5408a-f613e

CD
#11
$10 WP 10 none $20.00
-
-

 

[sgotwalks]

I took Dortmund as my winner with 4 to 1 odds on UWIN. Now I am looking for my long shot to win and I was leaning towards Instaknockout ($20 pays $1020) simply because I could take it as an omen for tonights fight...........have you got any better suggestions for my longshot pic bud? It has to be for a straight up win.

Oh, and good luck to you with your bets today.

Oh, and I also have Manny, of course!

 

[Wild]

I took Dortmund as my winner with 4 to 1 odds on UWIN. Now I am looking for my long shot to win and I was leaning towards Instaknockout ($20 pays $1020) simply because I could take it as an omen for tonights fight...........have you got any better suggestions for my longshot pic but?

If you like him, put show money on him, and play him under Dortman in a straight exacta. If it hits, it would pay $300+ for a $2 bet.

 

[sgotwalks]

If you like him, put show money on him, and play him under Dortman in a straight exacta. If it hits, it would pay $300+ for a $2 bet.

I wanted to box him in with an exacta but fucking UWIN where my gambling account is won't allow anything but straight up wins on the race (fucking lame). My credit card is maxed and betting elsewhere is not an option. Sucks ass, but I want to be involved, so I guess this is my only choice.

 

[Wild]

Well good luck to you sir! 25 minutes!

 

[Wild]

3 minutes to post

 

[Wild]

BOOM!!!!