I think Fergie puts him in the ground.If he were fighting Khabib I'd say it was a mistake bc he matches up terribly with wrestlers. Fergie isn't such a terrible matchup though, so he's got a small chance.
I personally think he quits in fights when it gets too tough for him (basing this mostly off the Poirier fight). Anyway that type of approach will do him no favors against Ferguson, a guy who never stops pressing the action.