I have a hard time ever buying that angle. Whenever there's a short notice replacement it's a strike against both fighters but there's usually one guy who's had a full camp. At the very least their conditioning/cardio should be at peak and they've had lots of sparring to get sharp compared to the guy getting the late notice.
Jons last finishes were over 3 guys who are now at MW, Sonnen being the last one in 2013. I think he's fights much more reserved now due to pressure and money. He's taking the GSP approach which is smart from his perspective, can't blame him for that.
This is partly copy-pasted from my post in Haulport's !!!!!!!!!!!! thread (shouldn't have wasted my brilliance in such a shitty thread, but I digress), with some new stuff added in.
Jon's fought 4 times since his last finish, against:
Alexander Gustafsson - a way tougher fight than he expected and trained for. A stylistic nightmare. Yet still, Jones nearly finished Alex in that 4th round. I think Jones wins a rematch more convincingly, but I agree with you that, at least against Alex, he would probably fight tentatively.
Glover Teixeira - Glover has been finished twice since then, yes, but Jones isn't a one-punch KO guy like Rumble, nor is he an elusive boxer like Gus. His style won't finish guys with Glover's style 9/10 times.
Daniel Cormier - Cormier had never been beaten before his fight with Jones, much less finished. Let's face it, Cormier is the 2nd best light-heavyweight fighter of all time, and would be in the GOAT discussion if not for Jones. Cormier is tough as nails and probably won't be finished by anybody, including Jon Jones, unless he stays in the game too long.
Ovince St. Preux - A lot of people bitch about the OSP fight and the same logical argument I present every time is that Jon took the fight on 2 weeks' notice. Jon is a very calculated fighter who comes into fights with a well-thought out, well-practiced game plan. It is impossible to do that in two weeks' time. With a full camp, Jones destroys OSP within two rounds.
This is far different than GSP's shitshows against fighters like Dan Hardy and Jake Shields.